Feb 8, 2026 | View Online

Good afternoon. On Friday, the WSJ and the Information reported the company was seeking an $800B valuation in a secondary sale ahead of a 2026 IPO. Then, Bloomberg delivered the ultimate mic drop last night, reporting that SpaceX is targeting a $1.5T valuation in its IPO. What a world.

We have been busy crunching the numbers and typing away, writing a 3,000-word article that breaks down the valuation, IPO plans, comps, and what we are hearing on financials. 

Today's newsletter:
🏦 SpaceX's $1.5T valuation
📈 ICEYE's revenue growth
📰 Market-moving headlines
📊 Payload polls

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SpaceX’s valuation is set to climb from $400B to $800B in a new secondary sale, setting the stage for a potential late-2026 or early 2027 IPO that could value the combined business at $1.5T, according to reporting from the WSJ, The Information, and Bloomberg. 

Additionally, contrary to years of guidance, the company has elected to IPO the full business rather than spinning off Starlink as previously planned. The public offering could raise more than $30B, which would surpass Aramco’s 2019 IPO that raised $29B (the largest IPO in history).

$1.5T valuation. Raising $30B to build space data centers. IPOing the entire business next year. 

These are eye-watering numbers and a paradigm shift for the space industry. Let’s jump in.

First, it's important to note the new valuations are not final, and could always be a market-testing exercise. 

The report of a $800B valuation was promptly caveated by CEO Elon Musk, who said SpaceX wasn’t the one raising the money. “There has been a lot of press claiming SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate. SpaceX has been cash-flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors,” Musk said on X. 

But notably, his response didn’t deny the extraordinary valuation or the IPO. And with news widely reported, we believe SpaceX is serious about going public in the next 12 to 18 months at the sky-high valuation. 

Earlier this fall, our sources told us SpaceX’s board believed that if the company went public, it would trade at $800B. That number became the secondary valuation, with the IPO valuation target set at twice that. A couple of reasons for the dramatic valuation appreciation:

$1.5T valuation proposal is a staggering number but one that we think will likely be met on the public markets. 

Historical revenue: After several years of stagnant growth, SpaceX’s growth accelerated sharply in 2022 after Starlink was rolled out broadly. From 2021 to 2025, the company grew at a 60% CAGR, more than doubling every two years. 

In this article, we discuss:

This is a Payload Pro article preview: To get the full story sign up for Payload Pro below.

ICEYE is, without a doubt, Europe’s largest and most successful space startup. The Finnish business announced last week that it raised $175M at a $2.8B valuation. The round was led by US-based firm General Catalyst, continuing the trend of limited European VC leadership.  

The company’s financials between 2022 and 2024, exclusively reviewed by Payload, show breakneck growth and big financing needs. ICEYE is in a unique market position; it is one of the only sizable, pure-play EO businesses in a region that is hungry for remote-sensing data and sovereign capability. 

For comparison: Planet Lab’s TTM revenue is $263M and sits at $4B market cap. 

Read a full breakdown of the financials in our ICEYE article published in October.

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Poll results: Last week we asked: Will Iridium be acquired within the next 18 months?

Last week's poll results: We had a typo in last week’s poll result, so we are republishing it this week. The question was: Which life extension model do you think has the best long-term demand and economics? 

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